Wednesday, March 18, 2009

It's not a question of "if"

Pick Jeremy’s 12-5 Upset! Arizona over Utah, Northern Iowa over Purdue, Wisconsin over Florida State, or Western Kentucky over Illinois


Have you gone mad?


Yes I have....for March Madness!


Okay, seriously...you don't like basketball.


Not the point.

As we've learned over the time we've been blagging together, we've learned that I'm very susceptible to peer pressure. Therefore, when the NCAA Squeekball tournament rolls around in March every year, I get roped into filling out at least one or two of those bracket thingies. I have absolutely no idea what teams are any good, who's been playing well lately, and what team that Tyler guy I'm apparently supposed to know plays for.

I know one fact about the NCAA tournament, and that is that the 12-5 matchup is a statistically significant outlier. You expect the percentage of upsets to increase as you go down the bracket...a #16 team roughly never beats a #1 seed, but a #9 seed quite often takes down a #8. That upset percentage is roughly linear, with one substantial bump at the #5 seed. It's cursed. A #12 seed upsets a #5 more often than they statistically should. That, my friends...is the extent of my NCAA basketball knowledge. Therefore, when I fill out my peer-induced bracket, I will include a peer-induced 12-5 upset based on votes by you, The Most Intelligent Readership In The World.

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